Top 50 MLB players age 25 or under by Keith Law.

 

這篇中Law提到了六名勇士球員,按照名次先後:

No. 12 Jason Heyward

"To compensate, he altered his swing so that his first movement sends his hands -- and the bat -- down at the ball, producing groundballs at a scary rate so that his power doesn't play."

這部份我在我之前這篇裡也提過,「去年我就注意到他的一個問題就是,他打了太多的滾地球,由於他的揮擊相當平,所以或許不會有一般重炮手那麼多的飛球,但是我期望看到的是他能射出一顆又一顆的平飛砲彈,但實際上他卻更常把球場上內野右半邊的地鼠打得七葷八素。」,這部份Law認為是他的啟動動作改變造成的影響,我不知道是不是但這個問題是從他新人年就有的狀況。

"His patience remained intact"

的確Heyward不會太常亂追亂揮,但同一篇裡我也提到了我對他的出棒選擇並不滿意,但他是否能走回正確的道路上就只有等上了場才知道了。

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No. 29 Freddie Freeman

"his most likely path to stardom would be to exceed those power projections, but despite his size his current swing doesn't foreshadow 30-homer power"

上面同一篇裡我也提過「我主要對他的疑慮是在他到底有沒有以前我聽說的power,這部份目前從他的swing和球被打到的狀態來看都還在不理想的狀態」,這裡Law也和我對他的swing有一樣的看法,Freeman與star player的距離主要就在他的power能長多少了,時間還站在他這邊,let's wait and see.

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No. 40 Tommy Hanson

"He hasn't had surgery or been diagnosed with anything more serious, but shoulder problems are rarely minor. A healthy Hanson would be in the top dozen names here."

八月初我看了他的一場先發,我的結語是「希望他是受到rain delay的影響,否則實在讓人很擔心他的手怎麼了。」果然馬上就被檢查出肩膀有問題,也只能祈禱他能夠康復了。

" He works with four pitches led by a 91-95 mph fastball and a knockout slider, along with good control if not always command."

Hanson的球路威力無庸置疑,我曾經提過他和頂級投手之間的距離就是那時有時沒有的速球控制和不夠精準的變化球進壘點,但當然現在又多了一個關鍵:健康。

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No. 47 Brandon Beachy

"Beachy's stuff doesn't grade out that well, but he has tremendous deception, and he's very effective at getting hitters to swing and miss at his fastball the first couple of times through the lineup. He pitches up in the zone, making him fly ball-prone, and he racked up high pitch counts in 2011 that kept him from going through lineups a third time."

開季後Beachy的第一場先發就可以看出Beachy的特性,「Beachy由於established level在哪不清楚,第一場出來靠的是速球威力,變化球控制非常差,雖然到球賽中段有調整回來一點,他善用好球帶內側,速球角度是上飄類的飛球投手,威力比速度上看到的90-92優,靠曲球變速另應該有滑球」,上面講到Heyward的那篇連結裡我也說過:「他的速球速度雖不突出,但有something there讓他的速球讓打者不好對應,而今天第六局的爆炸也是由於主戰的滑球在關鍵時刻控不住」。Law也看到了Beachy速球威力比帳面速度優這一點,Law認為是他投球的deception很好,這點我是持保留態度,目前我比較偏向是認為這個威力來自他的速球本身而非投球動作。

"Deception guys often struggle the more they go around a league, so there's probably some regression in his future, but an optimistic forecast on Beachy would have him as a potential No. 3 starter because of the bats he's missed in the past, especially if he junks the slider and throws the curveball instead."

在球季的第一場先發中我看到的Beachy變化主力是曲球,但第二次看他出賽時主力是滑球,由於我也只看他這兩場,沒有辦法判斷他究竟是以哪種球當主戰球路,Law會這樣說可能是他認為他的曲球是比較好的球路,這一點我要再多看他比賽才能確認。

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No. 49 Craig Kimbrel

"Kimbrel works with a plus fastball and plus slider, and if Fredi Gonzalez didn't work him to death this year (I picture the Atlanta manager tapping his right arm in his sleep just out of habit), he could have another two or three years like 2011 in him."

Kimbrel就很單純,也如同Law說的,不要被操壞最重要。

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No. 50 Mike Minor

"He's not as good as he looked at Triple-A in 2010, but better than Atlanta seemed to think he was in 2011. Minor is probably a solid No. 4, with a chance to be a No. 3, because he's got a good changeup, plus control, and good feel for pitching. On his best nights, he'll show an above-average curveball or hit 93 mph with his heater, but he will pitch with solid-average velocity and will have nights where he gets by on feel and changing speeds."

Minor我比較不熟,應該只看過他丟一兩場的部分局數,印象中他的確是滿靠變速吃飯的,看來是Beachy的速球降級變速升級版,今年有機會再來觀察他。

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以前沒有特別的Law的文章有特別的印象,但對這幾個勇士球員他的觀察還滿到位的,我提到的幾個要點他都有觀察到,相信他這篇裡面其他球員的內容(我還沒看完)應該也都寫得不錯,對想對這些球員有些基本認識的人來說有一讀的價值。

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  • @golden@
  • #22 Heyward 和 #6 Ryan Howard一樣,
    內角高一點速球是死角,
    兩人對右投的二縫線球就打得很好,
    Heyward擊到球後,左腳尖與左膝蓋沒有隨揮棒時轉向投手(前方),
    這也會影響擊球的力道!