1.That's 5 in a row.
在被D'Backs sweep之後，對Nationals的第一戰又吃敗戰，勝差也拉開到7場，過去這一個禮拜球隊拿了34分，丟了44分，平均每場的RS/RA是4.9/6.3，比較麻煩的是投手的問題，今年爛泥貼牆的牛棚也黏不太牢，先發少了Davies雖不能說是什麼巨大的損失，但是仍然對原本就很吃緊的戰力有不小的影響，在打擊不特別突出，rotation的back end又是由Ramirez和Sosa組成的情況下，前三號的表現就顯得很重要，但目前前三號的表現都是像No.3多過像No.1，Thomson在開季的好調後，這兩週只能用慘不忍睹來形容，月初時我談到他時曾說：「Thomson則已經處在30歲的wrong side，也不能夠寄望他有突破性的表現。」看來我錯了，這兩週Thomson的表現相當地有突破性，從四月1出頭的ERA一下子快要突破到5了。我看了兩局他上一場出賽的情形，I don't see anything wrong with him particularly，所以給他點時間應該會回來的。根據BP的playoff odds report，現在Braves進季後賽的機率大約是18%左右(PECOTA adjusted or not)，雖然不是什麼meaningful或很inspiring的數字，不過知道我們進季後賽的機率至少還比Francoeur拿保送的機率高10倍以上也算是個安慰吧。
2.Draft Time it is.
Rany Jazayerli的大長篇連載Draft系列終於到了完結篇(subscription required)，這一系列對大學/高中，投手/打者的選秀策略文章相當有意思，很值得一看。在這篇完結篇和THT的這篇Visualizing Draft Strategies裡也都有提到A's選高中球員的這個狀況，是否他們真的在市場的過度反應後又抓到新的market inefficiency？不過今年A's要到第66順位才有pick，效果可能比較顯示不出來。Braves今年的第一個pick是在24順位，去年的Joey Devine是相隔了13年後Braves第一次用top pick(27th overall)挑的大學球員，Devine現在還躺在DL，他的未來會如何我們還不知道，也不適用Jazayerli的draft rules #15，而上一個挑的大學球員Mike Kelly(2nd pick overall, 1991)是以失敗坐收。Braves的draft history不差，不過反正選來的球員中有一些是要養一養最後拿來吊凱子用的，就等著看Roy Clark今年要怎麼用24th~72th之間這6個pick。
3.Two reports on Greinke from BP.
Kevin Goldstein
"No matter how you look at it, it was progress. On Friday night, Greinke pitched for the first time this season, going five innings against San Antonio while allowing one run on four hits, walking one and striking out just one. It wasn't dominant, but it was certainly effective; with unspoken fears that he'd show up and be unable to pitch at all, it was a breath of fresh air. He'll get two or three more starts before any sort of decision is made, but in a nightmarish season in Kansas City, here at least is some good news. "
Will Carrol
"It's one of the better stories in baseball that Zack Greinke is back on the mound. BP has taken some heat over our projections and hopes for Greinke in the face of his results and his personal issues this season, but seeing Greinke effortlessly throwing mid-90's heat and appearing to have fun is worth any criticism. The interesting aspect, besides his mere return, is what many have described as a mechanical change. One source said he looked “effortless” while another said that Greinke's motion now looks completely natural and integrated. Whatever he did while he was gone worked. It's good to see him on the road back. "
在被D'Backs sweep之後，對Nationals的第一戰又吃敗戰，勝差也拉開到7場，過去這一個禮拜球隊拿了34分，丟了44分，平均每場的RS/RA是4.9/6.3，比較麻煩的是投手的問題，今年爛泥貼牆的牛棚也黏不太牢，先發少了Davies雖不能說是什麼巨大的損失，但是仍然對原本就很吃緊的戰力有不小的影響，在打擊不特別突出，rotation的back end又是由Ramirez和Sosa組成的情況下，前三號的表現就顯得很重要，但目前前三號的表現都是像No.3多過像No.1，Thomson在開季的好調後，這兩週只能用慘不忍睹來形容，月初時我談到他時曾說：「Thomson則已經處在30歲的wrong side，也不能夠寄望他有突破性的表現。」看來我錯了，這兩週Thomson的表現相當地有突破性，從四月1出頭的ERA一下子快要突破到5了。我看了兩局他上一場出賽的情形，I don't see anything wrong with him particularly，所以給他點時間應該會回來的。根據BP的playoff odds report，現在Braves進季後賽的機率大約是18%左右(PECOTA adjusted or not)，雖然不是什麼meaningful或很inspiring的數字，不過知道我們進季後賽的機率至少還比Francoeur拿保送的機率高10倍以上也算是個安慰吧。
2.Draft Time it is.
Rany Jazayerli的大長篇連載Draft系列終於到了完結篇(subscription required)，這一系列對大學/高中，投手/打者的選秀策略文章相當有意思，很值得一看。在這篇完結篇和THT的這篇Visualizing Draft Strategies裡也都有提到A's選高中球員的這個狀況，是否他們真的在市場的過度反應後又抓到新的market inefficiency？不過今年A's要到第66順位才有pick，效果可能比較顯示不出來。Braves今年的第一個pick是在24順位，去年的Joey Devine是相隔了13年後Braves第一次用top pick(27th overall)挑的大學球員，Devine現在還躺在DL，他的未來會如何我們還不知道，也不適用Jazayerli的draft rules #15，而上一個挑的大學球員Mike Kelly(2nd pick overall, 1991)是以失敗坐收。Braves的draft history不差，不過反正選來的球員中有一些是要養一養最後拿來吊凱子用的，就等著看Roy Clark今年要怎麼用24th~72th之間這6個pick。
3.Two reports on Greinke from BP.
Kevin Goldstein
"No matter how you look at it, it was progress. On Friday night, Greinke pitched for the first time this season, going five innings against San Antonio while allowing one run on four hits, walking one and striking out just one. It wasn't dominant, but it was certainly effective; with unspoken fears that he'd show up and be unable to pitch at all, it was a breath of fresh air. He'll get two or three more starts before any sort of decision is made, but in a nightmarish season in Kansas City, here at least is some good news. "
Will Carrol
"It's one of the better stories in baseball that Zack Greinke is back on the mound. BP has taken some heat over our projections and hopes for Greinke in the face of his results and his personal issues this season, but seeing Greinke effortlessly throwing mid-90's heat and appearing to have fun is worth any criticism. The interesting aspect, besides his mere return, is what many have described as a mechanical change. One source said he looked “effortless” while another said that Greinke's motion now looks completely natural and integrated. Whatever he did while he was gone worked. It's good to see him on the road back. "
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