The Braves are now 1.5 games behind the division leading Marlins.

在主場獲得三場的勝利讓勇士追上費城,僅落後小魚一場半,這幾場打線開始有正常的發揮,雖然Escobar被Church頭盔攻擊需要休息,不過Infante替代上場表現不錯,我球季前就說相當期待他能在勇士有不錯的發揮,原因的話去查查看他過去的home/away splits就知道了。Texeira也開始有安打出現,但是還多是強勁的滾地球,並什麼平射火箭砲出現,也就是還沒有真正恢復,但至少安打開始出現不是件壞事,而唯一令人搖頭的當然就是Frenchy了,對他我只希望他能記住三件事:

1)They're gonna throw you first pitch off-speed, so stop being fooled by that!!
2)They're gonna attack you on the inside corner, just try hit some of them!!!
3)When there's 2 strikes, they're gonna throw you fastball high and away, stop swinging at those things, at least not those more than a foot away from the strike zone!!!!

另外離開第一棒的Kelly Johnson的OPS也衝到865了,上次講過他之後第二天起立刻有改善,來看看上次提過的那張圖跟現在比比看的結果:

Then:



Now:


Yeah there you go Kelly.

當然了,其他人不管打得多好,跟Chipper一比就整個遜掉了,對手的投手現在也開始認清事實開始對Chipper採取安全第一的作法了,但是Chipper也能夠認清時機,知道什麼樣的時候他可以拼大支的,知道對上哪些投手他最好還是以安打為目標就好。Anyway, 以前我就說過看Chipper打擊是一件再舒服不過的事了,今年的Chipper顯然沒有讓這個comment有任何改變的需要。至於Chipper的防守,Chris Dial在The Baseball Analysts說他是優於平均的很好的防守者,並不像傳統或BP數據所說的是糟糕的防守者,在對防守數據的研究和思考越多之後我就對防守數據越不信任,所以我不知道哪一邊比較接近事實,但如果用觀察來做結論的話我會說他在平均左右,他沒有很快的速度和移位能力,對於抓in-between hop也沒有超群的能力,但是他的hand仍然soft enough,傳球偶爾失準但也相當不差,加上前衝barehanded play也一向很棒,至少他不會是讓我擔心的守備對象,起碼比起Kelly Johnson來說讓我放心,Kelly有不錯的移位和速度,但是在處理球的技巧上不夠純熟,任何比較特別一點的彈跳、角度、或者是跑者的影響都可能讓他在接球上出現誤差,但是只要他的球棒能夠持續保持,I'm alright with his glove.
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andrenomo

The Tornado

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  • Dorasaga
  • andre,

    did u read the fielding bible? bill james and dewan actually suggested having scout'n report accompanied (they used scout'n report in the book too).

    the limit of field'n #s seems to come from our limited understanding of fielding.
  • No I didn't read the latest one. Sure with the scouting report together we could have more info. But even if putting two flawed info together make it a better one, would it be good enough? I'm just not sure. The problem of fielding numbers is that there's too much noise in there. There are many cases in which a fielder could do better without getting better result and vice versa, also, there are a lot cases in which on the paper it seems like a similar play but in fact some are a lot difficult than others. Cuz there are a lot of things that numbers don't tell us. Is it a in-between hop? Is there's other fielders or runners interfering the play? Is the fielder trying a more difficult play to prevent lead runner from advancing or scoring, etc. I guess I'll talk about this again some other time.

    andrenomo 於 2008/05/27 07:13 回覆

  • Starberry
  • Rule of Thumb

    I dunno, my rough rule of thumb is that if a pitcher cannot have K/IP >1 in AAA, he is unlikey to be dominant in the majors.... yes, very rough rule, and there are many exceptions.... but that is the main reason I don't have a lot of faith in guys like Homer Bailey or Hochevar.

    Now, when you get a chance to watch one of Kershaw's starts when he plays the Braves, mind tell me what you think?

    Cheers,

    Wilson
  • I stop digging deep into the minor numbers about a couples of years ago, cuz prospects are just too unpredictable. All I try to know on a prospect now is what's his upside and how good and how promising he is.

    I'm no Bailey's fan, either, cuz he never really impressed me when I saw him pitch. As for Kershaw, I'll try to watch him pitch asap.

    andrenomo 於 2008/05/27 07:17 回覆

  • Dorasaga
  • andre,

    please. fielding has become the biggest puzzle in baseball research. though with limited result as they proclaimed, i honestly believe that many are on the right trace.

    Dan Fox's SFR is probably one of the quickest summaries that makes the Pirates organization like him (and hired him).

    If we are on the right direction, we can't get too far off truth.
  • Yeah, I believe that we're on the right track. It's just that I don't know how far are we from the destination. For a number to work, it requires a large enough sample size for randomness to even out. I'm just not sure it's the case for fielding, cuz in a same fielder will only have decent sample size behind his pitching staff(this changes a lot, too) and in his home park, and even that's not really large enough.

    andrenomo 於 2008/05/28 21:55 回覆

  • Dorasaga
  • *typo: on the right TRACK